Using the initially reported
value for monthly nonfarm payroll employment, the forecast was off by a
considerable amount: 95,000. While many factors can possibly account for this
forecast error, an arguably good candidate was the temporary
hiring done by the federal government for the 2010 Census. Indeed,
employment in the government sector increased by 72,000, which marks a sharp
shift from the decrease of 5,000 reported for March 2009. In the models used to generate the forecasts, the level of
aggregation is sufficiently high such that no explicit account is taken of a specific
sector, e.g., payroll employment in the government sector.
Last updated: May 10, 2009. Link to: Employment Forecast
Page.