Forecasting Quiz

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1. Accurate forecasting can be done with inaccurate historical data. If the forecasting model is a good one, it will improve the input used.
A.True
B.False


2. Aggregated (grouped) data frequently generate better forecasts than non-aggregated data used to forecast individual items.
A.True
B.False


3. If quantitative data is available on which to base a forecast, it is unnecessary to consider qualitative information.
A.True
B.False


4. Moving Averages are a forecasting model, developed in India, which incorporates the use of multiple regression.
A.True
B.False


5. In a good forecast, about half of the forecast misses should be randomly scattered above the actual results and half below the actual results.
A.True
B.False


6. Exponential smoothing can only be used if there is an observable trend and seasonal cycle in the data.
A.True
B.False


7. Seasonality refers to data patterns that recur every year (or every week, or every month, etc.) at about the same time.
A.True
B.False


8. Which of the following forecasting techniques generates trend forecasts?
A.Delphi method
B.Sales force composites
C.Moving averages
D.Single exponential smoothing
E.None of the above


9. For this set of errors: -1, -4, 0, +2, +3, MAD is:
A.1.0
B.1.6
C.2.0
D.2.5
E.10.0


10. Which probability distribution is used most extensively in dealing with forecasting errors?
A.Normal
B.Poisson
C.Exponential
D.Beta
E.Pareto


11. The cumulative forecast error is important for determining the:
A.Mean squared error.
B.Bias in forecast error.
C.Mean absolute deviation.
D.Control limits
E.Correlation coefficient


12. When we use exponential smoothing for forecasting, the alpha value (smoothing constant) that would give the greatest weight to the current actuals would be:
A.0
B..01
C..10
D..20
E..30


13. Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?
A.0
B..01
C..1
D..5
E.1.0


14. Simple exponential smoothing is being used to forecast demand. The previous forecast of 66 turned out to be six units less than actual demand. The next forecast is 66.9, implying a smoothing constant, alpha, equal to:
A..01
B..15
C..10
D..20
E..60


15. The temperature on Tuesday was 80 degrees, on Wednesday it was 82 degrees, on Thursday it was 78 degrees. A naive forecast for the temperature on Friday would be:
A.78
B.80
C.82
D.84
E.Can't tell from the data given



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