Forecasting
Variables, Assumptions, and Accuracy

Forecasting- The Devil is in the Details?


Dilbert Forecast 3
 


Background:

Forecasts tend to fall under the purview of Marketing & Sales.  As we know forecasts are just that, a forecast & not the actual future.  They are vital to every business and for every significant management decision & are the basis for the planning and control process.

Although Scott Adam's Dilbert cartoons make light of the forecasting process, forecasting is not an easy task and cannot be taken lightly.  Forecasting impacts the entire hierarchical planning process.

Questions for Thought:

1. The play on words above is funny to say the least but this type of oversight does happen.  Have you ever been part of or witnessed a situation like this one?  (I think about a situation where a comma got moved & the company I was working for ordered 1 million zip ties instead of 100,000)

2. Although outrageous, think about how an error such as overstating the forecast effects a firm or the counter when a forecast is understates reality.  Give specific examples of what happens with the supply chain (i.e., what happens to inventory, etc.).

3. I find the Pointy Headed Boss' comment very comical but think about a time when a situation like this came up after you had ordered something or for that matter not ordered.


Scott Adams - Dilbert