Forecasts of Selected Business Cycle Indicators for the U.S. Economy*

 

                                                 [Philip Rothman, Department of Economics, East Carolina University]

 

 

                                                                   

 

 

Below are forecast probabilities for the growth rate in annual real GDP and the level of the annual civilian unemployment rate. These forecasts are based on time series bootstrap estimates of the probability density function for these variables; see, for example, this authoritative survey article.

 

 

                                          2018:Q2 Forecasts (Computed May 2018)

 

                                                                                Table 1: Change in Real GDP

 

 

Probability of Indicated Percent Change in Real (Chain-Weighted) GDP

 

2017-2018

2018-2019

2019-2020

2020-2021

+6 percent or more

0.00

1.24

2.60

3.12

+5.0 to +5.9 percent

0.12

4.04

4.56

5.56

+4.0 to +4.9 percent

2.00

10.12

11.96

13.36

+3.0 to +3.9 percent

32.04

20.44

22.32

21.56

+2.0 to +2.9 percent

58.52

29.12

26.16

26.16

+1.0 to +1.9 percent

7.00

20.88

18.88

16.6

+0.0 to +0.9 percent

0.32

10.52

8.72

9.12

-1.0 to -0.1 percent

0.00

2.56

3.08

2.72

-2.0 to -1.1 percent

0.00

0.80

1.24

1.24

-3.0 to -2.1 percent

0.00

0.28

0.32

0.28

Decline more than 3 percent

0.00

0.00

0.16

0.28

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

 

                                                                           Table 2: Unemployment Rate

 

 

Probability of Indicated Annual Civilian Unemployment Rate

 

2018

2019

2020

2021

9.0 percent or more

0.00

0.00

0.04

0.28

8.0 to 8.9 percent

0.00

0.00

0.76

1.28

7.5 to 7.9 percent

0.00

0.12

0.64

2.36

7.0 to 7.4 percent

0.00

0.08

1.88

6.6

6.5 to 6.9 percent

0.00

0.40

5.32

9.88

6.0 to 6.4 percent

0.00

1.76

10.88

16.4

5.5 to 5.9 percent

0.00

5.12

16.52

21.44

5.0 to 5.4 percent

0.08

17.52

24

19.6

4.0 to 4.9 percent

61.08

56.28

34.32

19.24

Less than 4.0 percent

38.84

18.72

5.64

2.92

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

                                          

 


Last updated: May 7, 2018. Link to: Philip Rothman's Home Page

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