Forecasts of Selected Business Cycle Indicators for the U.S. Economy*

 

                                                 [Philip Rothman, Department of Economics, East Carolina University]

 

 

                                                                   

 

 

Below are forecast probabilities for the growth rate in annual real GDP, the level of the annual civilian unemployment

rate, and core measures of the CPI and the PCE price index inflation rates. These forecasts are based on time series

bootstrap estimates of the probability density function for these variables; see, for example, this authoritative survey article.

 

 

                                          2013:Q1 Forecasts (Computed May 2013)

 

                                                                             Table 1: Real GDP

 

 

Probability of Indicated Percent Change in Real (Chain-Weighted) GDP

 

2012-2013

2013-2014

2014-2015

2015-2016

+6 percent or more

0.00

1.64

3.68

4.68

+5.0 to +5.9 percent

0.08

3.92

5.48

6.24

+4.0 to +4.9 percent

0.40

9.96

11.92

12.88

+3.0 to +3.9 percent

5.04

20.84

22.04

22.36

+2.0 to +2.9 percent

50.28

26.48

24.16

23.28

+1.0 to +1.9 percent

40.16

20.92

18.84

15.60

+0.0 to +0.9 percent

3.52

10.36

8.52

8.56

-1.0 to -0.1 percent

0.48

4.32

3.24

3.64

-2.0 to -1.1 percent

0.04

1.16

1.16

1.88

-3.0 to -2.1 percent

0.00

0.36

0.80

0.64

Decline more than 3 percent

0.00

0.04

0.16

0.24

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

 

                                                                        Table 2: Unemployment Rate

 

 

Probability of Indicated Annual Civilian Unemployment Rate

 

2013

2014

2015

2016

11.0 percent or more

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.08

10.0 to 10.9 percent

0.00

0.16

0.20

0.24

9.5 to 9.9 percent

0.00

0.52

0.84

0.60

9.0 to 9.4 percent

0.00

1.80

2.40

2.68

8.5 to 8.9 percent

0.72

6.12

7.12

5.32

8.0 to 8.4 percent

20.84

15.76

12.72

10.88

7.5 to 7.9 percent

75.88

30.60

20.36

17.44

7.0 to 7.4 percent

2.56

28.96

22.80

22.44

6.0 to 6.9 percent

0.00

15.56

28.36

31.56

Less than 6.0 percent

0.00

0.52

5.20

8.76

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

                                                        Table 3: Core CPI and Core PCE Price Index Inflation Rates

 

 

 

 

Probability of indicated percent change in core CPI

 

 

 

 

Probability of indicated percent change in core PCE

 

 

12Q4-13Q4

13Q4-14Q4

 

12Q4-13Q4

13Q4-14Q4

4 percent or more

0.20

9.04

4 percent or more

0.00

0.52

3.5 to 3.9 percent

1.24

6.00

3.5 to 3.9 percent

0.00

0.92

3.0 to 3.4 percent

4.20

11.04

3.0 to 3.4 percent

0.00

2.68

2.5 to 2.9 percent

12.68

12.60

2.5 to 2.9 percent

0.28

7.72

2.0 to 2.4 percent

27.76

16.84

2.0 to 2.4 percent

4.08

12.72

1.5 to 1.9 percent

34.52

14.76

1.5 to 1.9 percent

20.68

20.04

1.0 to 1.4 percent

14.80

12.36

1.0 to 1.4 percent

45.76

21.48

0.5 to 0.9 percent

3.60

8.48

0.5 to 0.9 percent

25.00

16.84

0.0 to 0.4 percent

0.88

4.56

0.0 to 0.4 percent

3.92

8.92

Will decline

0.12

4.32

Will decline

0.28

8.16

TOTAL

100

100

TOTAL

100

100

 

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Last updated: May 6, 2013. Link to: Philip Rothman's Home Page

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