Forecasts of Selected Business Cycle Indicators for the U.S. Economy*

 

                                                 [Philip Rothman, Department of Economics, East Carolina University]

 

 

                                                                   

 

 

Below are forecast probabilities for the growth rate in annual real GDP, the level of the annual civilian unemployment rate, and core measures of the CPI and the PCE price index inflation rates. These forecasts are based on time series bootstrap estimates of the probability density function for these variables; see, for example, this authoritative survey article.

 

 

                                          2015:Q4 Forecasts (Computed November 2015)

 

                                                                             Table 1: Real GDP

 

 

Probability of Indicated Percent Change in Real (Chain-Weighted) GDP

 

2014-2015

2015-2016

2016-2017

2017-2018

+6 percent or more

0.00

0.28

0.40

0.68

+5.0 to +5.9 percent

0.00

0.72

2.28

2.60

+4.0 to +4.9 percent

0.00

5.00

9.88

11.52

+3.0 to +3.9 percent

0.16

22.40

24.60

25.20

+2.0 to +2.9 percent

99.84

41.08

31.56

31.76

+1.0 to +1.9 percent

0.00

23.68

21.76

19.48

+0.0 to +0.9 percent

0.00

5.72

7.92

7.12

-1.0 to -0.1 percent

0.00

0.88

1.24

1.52

-2.0 to -1.1 percent

0.00

0.24

0.32

0.12

-3.0 to -2.1 percent

0.00

0.00

0.04

0.00

Decline more than 3 percent

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

 

                                                                        Table 2: Unemployment Rate

 

 

Probability of Indicated Annual Civilian Unemployment Rate

 

2015

2016

2017

2018

9.0 percent or more

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.04

8.0 to 8.9 percent

0.00

0.00

0.32

2.28

7.5 to 7.9 percent

0.00

0.00

0.88

4.72

7.0 to 7.4 percent

0.00

0.00

4.20

11.44

6.5 to 6.9 percent

0.00

0.28

11.00

18.28

6.0 to 6.4 percent

0.00

3.60

21.00

24.20

5.5 to 5.9 percent

0.08

24.28

28.20

20.28

5.0 to 5.4 percent

99.92

49.68

22.84

12.36

4.0 to 4.9 percent

0.00

22.12

10.96

6.00

Less than 4.0 percent

0.00

0.04

0.60

0.40

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

                                                        Table 3: Core CPI and Core PCE Price Index Inflation Rates

 

 

 

 

Probability of indicated percent change in core CPI

 

 

 

 

Probability of indicated percent change in core PCE

 

 

14Q4-15Q4

15Q4-16Q4

 

14Q4-15Q4

15Q4-16Q4

4 percent or more

0.00

0.84

4 percent or more

0.00

0.00

3.5 to 3.9 percent

0.00

2.92

3.5 to 3.9 percent

0.00

0.00

3.0 to 3.4 percent

0.00

7.88

3.0 to 3.4 percent

0.00

0.52

2.5 to 2.9 percent

0.80

17.44

2.5 to 2.9 percent

0.00

2.84

2.0 to 2.4 percent

43.08

30.04

2.0 to 2.4 percent

0.00

15.92

1.5 to 1.9 percent

55.08

25.72

1.5 to 1.9 percent

24.84

35.64

1.0 to 1.4 percent

1.04

11.32

1.0 to 1.4 percent

75.16

33.12

0.5 to 0.9 percent

 

0.00

3.08

0.5 to 0.9 percent

0.00

11.08

0.0 to 0.4 percent

0.00

0.52

0.0 to 0.4 percent

0.00

0.84

Will decline

0.00

0.24

Will decline

0.00

0.04

TOTAL

100

100

TOTAL

100

100

 

Note: Best viewed with Firefox.

 


Last updated: November 7, 2015. Link to: Philip Rothman's Home Page

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