Forecasts of Selected Business Cycle Indicators for the U.S. Economy*
[Philip Rothman, Department
of Economics, East
Carolina University]
Below
are forecast probabilities for the growth rate in annual real GDP, the level of
the annual civilian unemployment
rate, and core measures of the CPI and the PCE
price index inflation rates. These forecasts are based on time series
bootstrap estimates of the probability
density function for these variables; see, for example, this
authoritative survey article.
2012:Q2 Forecasts (Computed April 2012)
Table 1: Real GDP
|
|
Probability of Indicated Percent
Change in Real (Chain-Weighted) GDP |
|||
|
|
2011-2012 |
2012-2013 |
2013-2014 |
2014-2015 |
|
+6 percent or
more |
0.04 |
3.12 |
3.76 |
4.64 |
|
+5.0 to +5.9
percent |
0.16 |
4.96 |
5.88 |
6.28 |
|
+4.0 to +4.9
percent |
1.36 |
14.52 |
14.00 |
13.24 |
|
+3.0 to +3.9
percent |
20.48 |
22.12 |
20.72 |
22.00 |
|
+2.0 to +2.9
percent |
61.08 |
25.40 |
24.32 |
21.36 |
|
+1.0 to +1.9
percent |
16.16 |
17.08 |
17.52 |
16.24 |
|
+0.0 to +0.9
percent |
0.68 |
8.96 |
8.00 |
9.60 |
|
-1.0 to -0.1
percent |
0.04 |
2.84 |
3.72 |
4.32 |
|
-2.0 to -1.1
percent |
0.00 |
0.64 |
1.28 |
1.44 |
|
-3.0 to -2.1
percent |
0.00 |
0.28 |
0.56 |
0.52 |
|
Decline more
than 3 percent |
0.00 |
0.08 |
0.24 |
0.36 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Table 2: Unemployment Rate
|
|
Probability of
Indicated Annual Civilian Unemployment Rate |
|||
|
|
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
|
11.0 percent or
more |
0.00 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
|
10.0 to 10.9
percent |
0.00 |
0.40 |
0.80 |
0.72 |
|
9.5 to 9.9
percent |
0.00 |
1.40 |
1.56 |
1.76 |
|
9.0 to 9.4
percent |
0.48 |
4.64 |
4.40 |
3.60 |
|
8.5 to 8.9
percent |
14.72 |
13.04 |
10.04 |
8.00 |
|
8.0 to 8.4
percent |
76.84 |
25.00 |
17.04 |
15.16 |
|
7.5 to 7.9
percent |
7.96 |
26.72 |
22.40 |
19.44 |
|
7.0 to 7.4
percent |
0.00 |
16.68 |
16.76 |
19.04 |
|
6.0 to 6.9
percent |
0.00 |
11.20 |
19.88 |
22.36 |
|
Less than 6.0
percent |
0.00 |
0.88 |
7.08 |
9.88 |
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Table 3: Core CPI and PCE Price
Index Inflation Rates
|
|
|
Probability of
indicated percent change in core CPI |
|
|
|
|
Probability of
indicated percent change in core PCE |
||
|
|
|
11Q4-12Q4 |
12Q4-13Q4 |
|
11Q4-12Q4 |
12Q4-13Q4 |
|||
|
4
percent or more |
0.76 |
12.16 |
4
percent or more |
0.00 |
1.92 |
||||
|
3.5
to 3.9 percent |
1.56 |
8.12 |
3.5
to 3.9 percent |
0.00 |
3.12 |
||||
|
3.0
to 3.4 percent |
7.72 |
13.00 |
3.0
to 3.4 percent |
0.40 |
6.56 |
||||
|
2.5
to 2.9 percent |
18.00 |
15.80 |
2.5
to 2.9 percent |
3.20 |
11.68 |
||||
|
2.0
to 2.4 percent |
33.60 |
15.32 |
2.0
to 2.4 percent |
19.48 |
18.60 |
||||
|
1.5
to 1.9 percent |
26.36 |
13.88 |
1.5
to 1.9 percent |
41.96 |
22.32 |
||||
|
1.0
to 1.4 percent |
9.44 |
10.60 |
1.0
to 1.4 percent |
29.96 |
18.08 |
||||
|
0.5
to 0.9 percent |
2.24 |
4.48 |
0.5 to 0.9 percent |
4.84 |
10.32 |
||||
|
0.0
to 0.4 percent |
0.24 |
2.96 |
0.0 to 0.4 percent |
0.16 |
5.32 |
||||
|
Will
decline |
0.08 |
2.68 |
Will decline |
0.00 |
2.08 |
||||
|
TOTAL |
100 |
100 |
TOTAL
|
100 |
100 |
||||
Note:
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Last updated: April 28, 2012. Link to: Philip Rothman's Home Page
