Forecasts of Selected Business Cycle Indicators for the U.S. Economy*

 

                                                 [Philip Rothman, Department of Economics, East Carolina University]

 

 

                                                                   

 

 

Below are forecast probabilities for the growth rate in annual real GDP, the level of the annual civilian unemployment

rate, and core measures of the CPI and the PCE price index inflation rates. These forecasts are based on time series

bootstrap estimates of the probability density function for these variables; see, for example, this authoritative survey article.

 

 

                                          2014:Q2 Forecasts (Computed May 2014)

 

                                                                             Table 1: Real GDP

 

 

Probability of Indicated Percent Change in Real (Chain-Weighted) GDP

 

2013-2014

2014-2015

2015-2016

2016-2017

+6 percent or more

0.0

1.9

3.4

4.6

+5.0 to +5.9 percent

0.0

3.4

6.5

6.2

+4.0 to +4.9 percent

0.5

9.6

13.1

14.5

+3.0 to +3.9 percent

8.3

19.9

23.5

22.0

+2.0 to +2.9 percent

55.9

27.7

23.2

22.3

+1.0 to +1.9 percent

32.8

22.5

17.3

17.8

+0.0 to +0.9 percent

2.3

9.7

7.7

7.8

-1.0 to -0.1 percent

0.2

3.9

3.9

3.2

-2.0 to -1.1 percent

0.0

1.3

1.1

1.0

-3.0 to -2.1 percent

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.3

Decline more than 3 percent

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

 

                                                                        Table 2: Unemployment Rate

 

 

Probability of Indicated Annual Civilian Unemployment Rate

 

2014

2015

2016

2017

9.0 percent or more

0.0

0.1

0.7

1.5

8.0 to 8.9 percent

0.0

2.0

6.0

7.6

7.5 to 7.9 percent

0.0

5.8

8.8

10.4

7.0 to 7.4 percent

2.2

14.7

18.8

16.4

6.5 to 6.9 percent

47.4

27.9

21.8

20.1

6.0 to 6.4 percent

49.7

27.4

19.2

20.0

5.5 to 5.9 percent

0.7

15.2

13.8

11.5

5.0 to 5.4 percent

0.0

5.1

6.7

7.9

4.0 to 4.9 percent

0.0

1.6

3.9

4.0

Less than 4.0 percent

0.0

0.1

0.3

0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

                                                        Table 3: Core CPI and Core PCE Price Index Inflation Rates

 

 

 

 

Probability of indicated percent change in core CPI

 

 

 

 

Probability of indicated percent change in core PCE

 

 

12Q4-13Q4

13Q4-14Q4

 

12Q4-13Q4

13Q4-14Q4

4 percent or more

0.3

7.0

4 percent or more

0.0

0.6

3.5 to 3.9 percent

0.5

5.9

3.5 to 3.9 percent

0.0

1.5

3.0 to 3.4 percent

2.6

9.2

3.0 to 3.4 percent

0.1

3.6

2.5 to 2.9 percent

8.8

13.1

2.5 to 2.9 percent

0.7

7.6

2.0 to 2.4 percent

20.3

15.9

2.0 to 2.4 percent

5.3

14.3

1.5 to 1.9 percent

35.0

15.1

1.5 to 1.9 percent

25.1

19.9

1.0 to 1.4 percent

23.6

13.0

1.0 to 1.4 percent

44.7

22.8

0.5 to 0.9 percent

 

6.8

8.8

0.5 to 0.9 percent

21.4

15.1

0.0 to 0.4 percent

1.7

6.0

0.0 to 0.4 percent

2.6

8.8

Will decline

0.4

5.9

Will decline

0.0

5.8

TOTAL

100

100

TOTAL

100

100

 

Note: Best viewed with Firefox.

 


Last updated: May 29, 2014. Link to: Philip Rothman's Home Page

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