Forecasts of Selected Business Cycle Indicators for the U.S. Economy*

 

                                                 [Philip Rothman, Department of Economics, East Carolina University]

 

 

                                                                   

 

 

Below are forecast probabilities for the growth rate in annual real GDP, the level of the annual civilian unemployment rate, and core measures of the CPI and the PCE price index inflation rates. These forecasts are based on time series bootstrap estimates of the probability density function for these variables; see, for example, this authoritative survey article.

 

 

                                          2016:Q2 Forecasts (Computed May 2016)

 

                                                                             Table 1: Change in Real GDP

 

 

Probability of Indicated Percent Change in Real (Chain-Weighted) GDP

 

2015-2016

2016-2017

2017-2018

2018-2019

+6 percent or more

0.00

1.40

3.20

4.32

+5.0 to +5.9 percent

0.00

3.72

5.64

5.36

+4.0 to +4.9 percent

0.16

10.44

12.28

13.72

+3.0 to +3.9 percent

3.32

20.64

24.76

21.00

+2.0 to +2.9 percent

37.04

27.80

25.16

24.64

+1.0 to +1.9 percent

53.92

21.00

16.80

17.80

+0.0 to +0.9 percent

5.24

10.40

7.52

8.08

-1.0 to -0.1 percent

0.32

3.48

3.20

3.76

-2.0 to -1.1 percent

0.00

0.80

0.92

0.88

-3.0 to -2.1 percent

0.00

0.24

0.32

0.28

Decline more than 3 percent

0.00

0.08

0.20

0.16

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

 

                                                                        Table 2: Unemployment Rate

 

 

Probability of Indicated Annual Civilian Unemployment Rate

 

2016

2017

2018

2019

9.0 percent or more

0.00

0.00

0.16

0.84

8.0 to 8.9 percent

0.00

0.20

1.76

4.04

7.5 to 7.9 percent

0.00

0.48

2.72

6.72

7.0 to 7.4 percent

0.00

1.20

7.56

9.96

6.5 to 6.9 percent

0.00

4.88

14.64

19.16

6.0 to 6.4 percent

0.04

13.16

21.04

21.04

5.5 to 5.9 percent

1.00

25.48

23.92

19.48

5.0 to 5.4 percent

36.08

31.80

16.28

11.32

4.0 to 4.9 percent

62.88

21.96

10.92

6.84

Less than 4.0 percent

0.00

0.84

1.00

0.60

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

                                                        Table 3: Core CPI and Core PCE Price Index Inflation Rates

 

 

 

 

Probability of indicated percent change in core CPI

 

 

 

 

Probability of indicated percent change in core PCE

 

 

15Q4-16Q4

16Q4-17Q4

 

15Q4-16Q4

16Q4-17Q4

4 percent or more

1.56

11.12

4 percent or more

0.04

1.60

3.5 to 3.9 percent

3.32

8.76

3.5 to 3.9 percent

0.16

2.00

3.0 to 3.4 percent

13.72

12.12

3.0 to 3.4 percent

0.76

6.32

2.5 to 2.9 percent

30.64

16.88

2.5 to 2.9 percent

6.00

12.68

2.0 to 2.4 percent

34.6

15.32

2.0 to 2.4 percent

31.00

20.48

1.5 to 1.9 percent

12.72

14.32

1.5 to 1.9 percent

45.00

22.84

1.0 to 1.4 percent

2.68

10.56

1.0 to 1.4 percent

15.88

18.16

0.5 to 0.9 percent

 

0.72

5.48

0.5 to 0.9 percent

1.16

10.32

0.0 to 0.4 percent

0.00

2.76

0.0 to 0.4 percent

0.00

3.84

Will decline

0.04

2.68

Will decline

0.00

1.76

TOTAL

100

100

TOTAL

100

100

 

Note: Best viewed with Firefox.

 


Last updated: May 17, 2016. Link to: Philip Rothman's Home Page

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