Forecasts of Selected Business Cycle Indicators for the U.S. Economy*

 

                                                 [Philip Rothman, Department of Economics, East Carolina University]

 

 

                                                                   

 

 

Below are forecast probabilities for the growth rate in annual real GDP, the level of the annual civilian unemployment rate, and core measures of the CPI and the PCE price index inflation rates. These forecasts are based on time series bootstrap estimates of the probability density function for these variables; see, for example, this authoritative survey article.

 

 

                                          2017:Q4 Forecasts (Computed November 2017)

 

                                                                                Table 1: Change in Real GDP

 

 

Probability of Indicated Percent Change in Real (Chain-Weighted) GDP

 

2016-2017

2017-2018

2018-2019

2019-2020

+6 percent or more

0.00

0.04

0.32

0.64

+5.0 to +5.9 percent

0.00

0.68

2.20

2.92

+4.0 to +4.9 percent

0.00

4.08

10.36

10.56

+3.0 to +3.9 percent

0.00

21.16

23.60

26.24

+2.0 to +2.9 percent

99.28

40.36

32.96

31.92

+1.0 to +1.9 percent

0.72

27.68

21.28

19.68

+0.0 to +0.9 percent

0.00

4.88

7.48

6.24

-1.0 to -0.1 percent

0.00

1.08

1.76

1.56

-2.0 to -1.1 percent

0.00

0.04

0.04

0.24

-3.0 to -2.1 percent

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Decline more than 3 percent

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

 

                                                                           Table 2: Unemployment Rate

 

 

Probability of Indicated Annual Civilian Unemployment Rate

 

2017

2018

2019

2020

9.0 percent or more

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

8.0 to 8.9 percent

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.80

7.5 to 7.9 percent

0.00

0.00

0.24

2.24

7.0 to 7.4 percent

0.00

0.00

1.12

5.08

6.5 to 6.9 percent

0.00

0.00

3.40

12.52

6.0 to 6.4 percent

0.00

0.08

10.36

21.36

5.5 to 5.9 percent

0.00

1.56

23.32

24.72

5.0 to 5.4 percent

0.00

14.92

29.64

19.16

4.0 to 4.9 percent

100.00

80.72

30.20

13.28

Less than 4.0 percent

0.00

2.72

1.72

0.84

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

                                                          Table 3: Core CPI and Core PCE Price Index Inflation Rates

 

 

 

 

Probability of indicated percent change in core CPI

 

 

 

 

Probability of indicated percent change in core PCE

 

 

16Q4-17Q4

17Q4-18Q4

 

16Q4-17Q4

17Q4-18Q4

4 percent or more

0.00

0.12

4 percent or more

0.00

0.00

3.5 to 3.9 percent

0.00

0.28

3.5 to 3.9 percent

0.00

0.04

3.0 to 3.4 percent

0.00

1.44

3.0 to 3.4 percent

0.00

0.08

2.5 to 2.9 percent

0.00

5.72

2.5 to 2.9 percent

0.00

1.44

2.0 to 2.4 percent

0.64

13.92

2.0 to 2.4 percent

0.00

7.76

1.5 to 1.9 percent

55.88

27.44

1.5 to 1.9 percent

5.20

25.68

1.0 to 1.4 percent

42.64

29.40

1.0 to 1.4 percent

94.48

39.12

0.5 to 0.9 percent

 

0.84

15.60

0.5 to 0.9 percent

0.32

21.76

0.0 to 0.4 percent

0.00

4.92

0.0 to 0.4 percent

0.00

3.84

Will decline

0.00

1.16

Will decline

0.00

0.28

TOTAL

100

100

TOTAL

100

100

 

 


Last updated: December 19, 2017. Link to: Philip Rothman's Home Page

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